As we approach the one year mark since Jason Kenney took the reins as Premier in Alberta, polling numbers released from Angus Reid this week tell an interesting tale.
The United Conservative Party has dropped from a 52 per cent electoral showing down to 40 today. With a somewhat clumsy first year in power, this isn’t too surprising. Communications blunders and the less than stellar performance from initiatives such as the Canada Energy Centre are taking their toll on government support. The budget doesn’t cut nearly enough spending to satisfy fiscal hawks while the rather modest spending restraint is still enough to inflame and draw the ire of public service unions. There are few people giving the UCP a thumbs up on any front right now and the polls are reflecting it.
Coming in today with 36 percent after taking 41 percent in the general election last year, Notley’s NDP is not faring any better. In opposition Notley has not been able to score any political points against Jason Kenney as she obsessively repeats her disproven mantra that the UCP government has handed out $4.7 billion to their “rich friends”. Her song is getting repetitive and tiresome. While the shine has faded with the UCP, Albertan’s remain unconvinced that another dose of the NDP is the answer.
Disenchanted Liberals managed to take over the Alberta Party a decade ago and have been loudly claiming that they will be ushering in a new era of government governing from the mythical “centre”. While the Alberta Party has been able to talk a strong game on social media and they have proven adept at gathering left-leaning floor crossers in the legislature, their support has always been moribund and remains so at a dismal eight percent. When your party stands for nothing it tends to draw nobody.
Under the steady hand of David Khan, the Alberta Liberal Paty has been completely obliterated and no longer even registers in polls.
With a showing of nine percent, the newly minted Alberta Independence Party (AIP) is the real newsmaker in today’s polling. This is a party that only got registered during the last election. They currently have no leader and their party organization itself is in utter disarray due to infighting and a lack of solid ground (or really any) organization. Despite all of these handicaps, the AIP is in a solid third place with enough support to be a spoiler at the least in future elections.
The AIP is still largely a shell of a party, and appears to be attracting support based more on its name than anything else at present. Imagine what the support numbers will be once the AIP gets a solid leader and starts actually organizing around the province.
We are in tumultuous times. Albertans are deeply dissatisfied confederation and they want to see change. While Kenney has held meetings throughout the province and talked a good game, with nearly a year in power he has failed to do a single substantial thing to change Alberta’s lot within Canada. People are beyond calling for the drafting and sending of angry letters to Ottawa. It is time for some solid legislative changes to start shielding the province from a federal government that is increasingly malevolent towards Alberta.
For a party to go from nothing to nearly 10 percent support in Alberta while not even having a leader is unprecedented. The AIP, Freedom Conservative Party, and Wexit Alberta have been dancing around merger talks for some time now. If those parties manage to get it together and if they find a strong leader, they will be a major player on Alberta’s political landscape. Unified, led, and organized, they could actually be competitive in a few seats, or potentially even become a contender.
I know, I know. “Polls are but snapshots in time”. Yes, indeed they are, but to dismiss the rise of a party which is little more than a concept right now yet is taking close to 10 per cent support is foolhardy. Either the UCP is going to cover its regionalist flank, or the AIP will be taking a very big bite out of it in the next election. The ball is in Kenney’s court right now, but it won’t remain so for long if Albertans don’t see some action soon.
With the COVID-19 pandemic and the pending world economic collapse dominating the headlines these days, the growth with the Alberta Independence Party and the broader independence movement is sliding under the headlines. With such a long period of instability and turmoil on the horizon, it is clear that the AIP isn’t going anywhere any time soon as people seek change from the status quo in a system that is failing them.
Cory Morgan is a columnist for the Western Standard
FILDEBRANDT: The leadership race about nothing
Fildebrandt writes that in contrast to the 2017 leadership race, the 2020 vote has little to do with real policy differences.
The 2020 Tory leadership race has shaped up to be a boring, pale reflection of the exciting contest that marked the party’s 2017 race.
In 2017, 14 candidates fought it out for the Conservative brass ring. The contenders – for the most part – represented different factions, and featured a battle between people with substantive policy differences.
Maxime Bernier the anti-establishment libertarian. Michael Chong the Green Tory. Brad Trost and Pierre Lemieux the social conservatives. Kellie Leitch the Red Tory cum populist-nationalist. Lisa Raitt the socially progressive Red.
Kevin O’Leary ran less on policy, than the force of his considerable personality before bowing out.
Erin O’Toole and Andrew Scheer also ran light on policy, trying to position themselves as the centre-ish goldilocks candidates for down-ballot support. In Scheer’s case, his only noted policy was his fanatical defence of the supply-management dairy cartel.
The race was fought with a healthy number of debates held in almost every major region of the country, and the large number of candidates forced the contenders to stand out from the pack.
Contrast the 2017 race with the 2020 race, and the reflection is not flattering for the party.
By necessity, COVID-19 has nixed most of the debates and put a hard dampener on campaign tour events, but the virus cannot be blamed for most of the problems.
While packed stages with 14 candidates and large crowds are off the table, a camera pointed at four candidates on the stage were possible. The party held just a single one of these. True North News tried to hold a second, but it was effectively scuttled when Peter MacKay pulled out at the 11th hour. The result is that CPC members have hardly had any chance to see these candidates face off outside of duelling Facebook memes and news releases. This has added to the otherwise small contrast in ideas and styles between the two front runners, Peter MacKay and Erin O’Toole.
And while the two “second-tier” candidates – Leslyn Lewis and Derek Sloan – have been a bit more policy heavy – they have received little attention from the media, and have little chance of an upset.
MacKay and O’Toole are the only two candidates with any realistic chance of winning, and the contrast between the two men is mostly rhetorical. Both support renamed carbon taxes on industry, like Alberta’s TIER. Both have not committed to any significant reduction in federal spending to balance the budget within a term in office. Both support the continuation of the supply management dairy cartel. Both will not commit to any specific on Equalization reform, or to reopen the constitution to address Western issues. Both have committed to upholding the status quo on abortion, although O’Toole has not shown the open distain that Peter MacKay has for the “stinking albatross” of social conservatives.
The differences between the two candidates largely boil down to their campaign rhetoric and style. MacKay is openly campaigning as the moderate successor to the Progressive Conservatives. O’Toole campaigned in the middle of the pack in 2017, but he smartly realized that there was no Bernier-style candidate in this race to carry the libertarian or more hardcore conservative banner in this race. As such, he has positioned himself as the “True Blue” choice.
The biggest difference between the two candidates, is largely who is supporting them. MacKay dominates the Atlantic provinces and Quebec, and in the absence of a Western candidate in the race, O’Toole is poised to win it. As with federal elections, the ultimate decision will boil down to Ontario.
Undoubtedly, federal Wexit activists are pining for a MacKay win. With very little support between Winnipeg and Vancouver, he will be easier to portray as an Eastern establishment politician with little regard for the West. While O’Toole’s Western policies may be similar to MacKay’s, he at least has allies in the neighbourhood.
O’Toole’s abstinence from attacking social conservatives will likely serve him well on down-ballot support. As Sloan and Lewis likely drop off in the first and second rounds, the smart money is on their next choices going disproportionately to O’Toole.
Lewis in particular has stepped out of obscurity in this race and will be well positioned for a front bench role if she manages to win a seat in the next election. Sloan may be doomed to suffer the fate of Brad Trost; thanked for his second-choice support, but shuffled off to the back benches, and potentially out of a nomination.
Candidates almost always run to the centre after capturing their party’s leadership or nomination. It’s the natural pull of political gravity, but on August 21st, CPC members are voting more for a brand, than a set of principles.
I’d be happy to be proven wrong.
Derek Fildebrandt is Publisher of the Western Standard and President of Wildrose Media Corp. firstname.lastname@example.org
LETTER: No social conservatives for next Tory leader
A reader says that Peter MacKay should be the next Tory leader because he is a social progressive.
Outgoing Conservative leader Andrew Scheer recently stated his belief that the PM can be “socially conservative” and that only the Trudeau Liberals “demonize such views”.
Wrong Mr Scheer, as a card carrying member of your party, I can tell you for a fact that we lost the last election precisely because you would not publicly support both existing abortion rights and LGBT equality. I am already convinced that the Trudeau Liberals will win the next election too, because all of your would be successors have stated that as PM, they would allow their backbencher MPs to bring forth anti-abortion legislation, although both MacKay and O’Toole have stated that they would not personally support such motions when they come up for a vote in Parliament.
We are never going to beat the Trudeau Liberals in this day and age, especially in the large cities & suburbs, until we finally make peace as a political party with existing abortion rights and LGBT equality.
MacKay may be marginally better than the rest of the pack in this sense.
GRAFTON: Trudeau cannot lead a nation that he doesn’t believe in
“Distrust in government, a disproportional electoral system, mass immigration, and other factors are poised to meet at the polls next election in a perfect storm of disunity.”
In November 2015, newly elected Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gave an interview to the New York Times. It was an historic interview, during which the Prime Minister signaled his disdain for Canada as a nation with any kind of unique cultural identity. He said that Canada has no core identity, and that it is “becoming a new kind of country, not defined by our history or European national origins, but by a pan-cultural heritage”. He went on to say that he sees Canada as the “first post-national state”.
Almost six million Canadians – mostly east of Manitoba – supported his vision at the polls in 2019.
The critical take-away here is the clear statement of a “post-national” goal. Post-nationalism involves the global replacement of national identities and nation-states with multicultural supranational entities such as NATO, the UN, the EU, and multi-national corporations.
Disunity now threatens Confederation.
A DART poll conducted on February 24th shows that an alarming sixty-nine percent of Canadians believe “Canada is broken”. Eighty-two percent of Canadians believe that politicians represent their own partisan interests rather than those of Canada.
The Electoral Map resembles a cancerous MRI scan, vividly coloured tumours highlighting patches of tribal discontent from coast to coast.
A poll conducted for the Western Standard in May found that between 45 and 48 of Albertans back independence, depending on how the question was put. Soon after, Wexit Alberta and the Freedom Conservatives merged to form the Wildrose Independence Party, also with a credible leader in the original Wildrose’s first leader, Paul Hinman.
The Bloc Quebecoise holds 32 seats in the House of Commons, giving it the balance of power on national legislation.
What led to this great divide?
We could attribute it to a lack of national leadership, however blaming it all on Trudeau would be too easy. There are other causal and contributing factors.
One is the electoral system. The “plurality system”, also known as “first-past-the-post”, is responsible for the 2019 re-election of the Trudeau government, with only a third of the popular vote. More Canadians voted for Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives. This marginalized the West – which had voted solidly Conservative – and contributed immediately to the formation of the Wexit Party federally, the Wildrose Independence Party in Alberta, and the Buffalo Party in Saskatchewan. Trudeau had campaigned in 2015 on a platform promising electoral reform, but abandoned his promise after taking office. Of course, had he followed through with electoral reform, he would have lost to Scheer in 2019 and we would have a Conservative government in Ottawa, or at the very least, a Conservative plurality of seats.
The reality of the first-past-the-post system is that Ontario (121 ridings) and Quebec (78 ridings) can determine who wins an election. With 338 ridings across the country, a plurality of 199 seats invalidates the other eight provinces and three territories (with only 139 seats combined). The electoral system therefore sows disunity.
Another causal factor may be found in demographics. A 2019 poll conducted for CBC showed that while indigenous voters were abandoning the Liberals, immigrants overwhelmingly support Trudeau and the Liberals. According to the poll, “Forty-five per cent of new Canadians polled say they voted for the Liberals in 2015 and 39 per cent say they currently intend to vote for the party in 2019.” Under the Trudeau government, immigration levels have soared to record high levels, with the 2022 annual target set at 361,000 (comparable to adding a city the size of say London or Halifax every year). Using the CBC numbers, that represents an influx of 141,000 to 162,000 new Liberal voters annually to Canada.
The 2011 National Household Survey revealed that most immigrants (86 per cent) are from non-European countries, and that 20 per cent of the population (6.8 million) were born outside of Canada. Almost all (95 per cent) move to Ontario, BC, Quebec, and Alberta; most (91 per cent) in large cities, and most of these in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. Unfamiliar with Castor canadensis, new immigrants are a large voting block inhomogeneous with national voting trends. Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver voted Liberal in 2019. Forty-five of fifty ridings in the GTA alone elected Liberal members. For comparison, there are only thirty-four ridings in all of Alberta. This trend will continue to marginalize the West.
Contributing to national disunity is an erosion of trust in the democratic process. Globally, voters are disengaging from mainstream politics and polarizing toward niche parties serving special-interests (Bloc Quebecoise, Green Party, and Wexit
Distrust in government, a disproportional electoral system, mass immigration, and other factors are poised to meet at the polls next election in a perfect storm of disunity.
It may be a tipping point for Canada’s future.
Canadians awoke on the morning of October 22nd, 2019 to a crisis of disunity. The prime minister cannot recognize a national crisis if he does not recognize the nation.
Ken Grafton is a freelance columnist
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