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POLL: UCP 40, NDP, 34, WIP 10

New polling suggests that Alberta’s political landscape may be undergoing a shift.

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According to the second part of a Northwest Research Poll commissioned by the Western Standard, Alberta’s political landscape appears to be undergoing a shift.

The governing United Conservative Party (UCP) has seen its big lead shrink from 55 per cent in the 2019 election down to 40 per cent of decided voters. While the NDP remains virtually unchanged at 34 per cent, the upstart Wildrose Independence Party (WIP) comes onto the scene in its first major poll in third place at 10 per cent.

The Alberta Party garnered 8 per cent, the Liberals 7, and the Greens 1.

Undecided voters made up 23 per cent of the total, coming mostly at the expense of Albertans who voted UCP in last year’s election.

The poll surveyed 1,100 people in Alberta, was weighted for regional population, age, and gender, and contains a margin of error of 3.02 per cent. 

“These numbers line up with other polls tracing declining support for the UCP government and the premier, but suggest a new liability that is directly related to Kenney’s strategy of tapping into anger and anti-federalist sentiments,” said Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams.

“Some of us warned of the dangers of stoking such inclinations in the lead up to the 2019 election. Such anger can turn against leaders/governments who fail to meet the expectations raised. And indeed, the new Wildrose Independence Party appears to be capitalizing on the growing legitimacy of anti-federalist [and pro] independence rhetoric.”

“I would not be surprised to see the highest support [for the WIP] in former Wildrose and Social Credit strongholds [i.e. central and southern Alberta]. As the poll also seems to suggest, there may be enduring challenges for opponents of the UCP and Kenney, splitting their vote for alternatives.”

Poll conducted by Northwest Research Group, all rights reserved by Western Standard (Wildrose Media Corp.)

Regional breakdown

The regional breakdowns also tell an interesting story.

The Tories remain dominant in Calgary with 47 per cent support, well ahead of the NDP at 27, the Alberta Party at 9, the Wildrose Independence Party at 8, and the Liberals at 7.

The NDP maintain their stronghold on Edmonton with 48 per cent, with the UCP at 31, the Alberta Party and Liberals both at 8, and the Wildrose at 5.

Outside of the two big cities, the UCP remains ahead, but its domination has been shaken with support down to 43 per cent. The NDP stand at 27, the Wildrose Independence Party at 16, Alberta at 8, Liberals at 4, and Greens at 2.

Independence question becoming Alberta’s third rail

Earlier this week, the Western Standard released a poll from the same respondents on support for Alberta independence. With support ranging from 45 to 48 per cent of decided respondents, independence could become the third-rail of Alberta politics.

The poll found that independence support was 82 per cent with Wildrose Independence Party voters, 52 per cent with UCP voters, 50 per cent with Alberta Party voters, 41 per cent of current undecided voters, and just 11 per cent of NDP voters.

Earlier this week, the Western Standard released a poll from the same respondents on support for Alberta independence. With support ranging from 45 to 48 per cent of decided respondents, independence could become the third-rail of Alberta politics.

This is likely fuelling early support for the Wildrose Independence Party, which will be formed in late June if members of the Freedom Conservative Party and Wexit Alberta vote to approve a merger deal.

Divided left, centre-left

Changes in the political landscape aren’t just happening on the right-end of the spectrum. While the NDP remains the dominant force on the left, it’s two centre-left competitors continue to sap potential strength.

The Alberta Party continues to tread water from its 2019 election results at 8 per cent, and the Liberals have made somewhat of a comeback to 7 per cent, up from the 1 per cent they received during the election.

The Liberal numbers show that the NDP still has discontented progressive voters not yet under its tent, and that the Alberta Party has yet to starve the Liberals out as the sole “goldilocks” option between the NDP and UCP.

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard
dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com
Twitter.com/nobby7694

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard. He has served as the City Editor of the Calgary Sun and has covered Alberta news for nearly 40 years. dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com

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NDP MLA under fire for mocking death of British PM Margaret Thatcher

“The only thing I regret about Margaret Thatcher’s death is that it happened probably 30 years too late,” said Marlin Schmidt

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An Edmonton NDP MLA is being slammed for mocking the death of the Iron Lady – former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.

“I can still go on to enjoy the fact that Margaret Thatcher is dead. The only thing I regret about Margaret Thatcher’s death is that it happened probably 30 years too late,” said Marlin Schmidt, MLA for Edmonton-Gold Bar, in the Legislature Wednesday afternoon.

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Thatcher is known around the world as a conservative icon.

Schmidt’s comments drew the ire of former Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall.

“Keepin’ it classy. @abndpcaucus” Wall tweeted.

Thatcher served as British PM from 1979 to 1990. She was the first woman to hold the position.

A Soviet journalist dubbed her the “Iron Lady.”

Thatcher was also credited with crushing the powerful British union movement and being in charge when Britain defeated Argentina in a war over the Falkland Islands.

Thatcher died in 2013, at the age of 87, after suffering a stroke.

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard

dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com

Twitter.com/nobby7694

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UCP bill will allow private sale of blood

Tany Yao, UCP MLA for Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, has brought forward Bill 204 that will repeal Alberta’s ban on the private purchase of human blood.

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The UCP is about to repeal a law in Alberta that bans the private sale of blood.

Tany Yao, UCP MLA for Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, has brought forward Bill 204 that will repeal Alberta’s ban on the private purchase of human blood.

In 2017, the NDP passed the Voluntary Blood Donations Act, which banned everyone except for the Canadian Blood Services from paying for plasma and other blood products.

“A secure supply of plasma is a cornerstone of a modern twenty-first century health care system. The repeal of the Voluntary Blood Donations Act will help patients by making our plasma supply less dependent on international supply which can be unreliable,” Yao said.

Bill advocate Whitney Goulstone, Executive Director Canadian Immunodeficiencies Patient Organization (CIPO), noted last summer Canada experienced its first IG (Immune Globulin) shortage.

Kate van der Meer, said the bill, if it becomes law, will make her life easier.

“I was originally scheduled to switch to SCIG (Subcutaneous Immune Globulin) in May 2019. Due to the shortage, this did not happen. Instead, I had to continue traveling to the hospital every 3 weeks, and struggle to care for my 3 young children while recovering from each intravenous infusion. This continued until the end of September 2019 when the shortage eased and Canadian Blood Services began allowing patients to switch to SCIG again,” she said, in a statement in the government press release.

“Patients have suffered because of our apathy, and because of the Voluntary Blood Donations Act.”

Canada as a whole only supplies 13.5 per cent of the plasma needed for the production of the IG and other plasma therapies used for the treatment of Canadian patients.

The NDP is on the record as opposing the new bill.

“If passed, this bill will divert donations away from Canadian Blood Services to private buyers, who can then sell them to the highest bidder on world markets,” said NDP Health Critic David Shepherd.

“This is very bad for Albertans. It flies directly in the face of the Krever Inquiry.”

 The Krever Inquiry investigated Canada’s tainted blood scandal, in which tens of thousands of people were infected with hepatitis C or HIV through tainted blood products.

The inquiry’s report led to the creation of a single national agency, Canadian Blood Services. 

Ontario, Quebec and B.C. also have legislated bans on the purchase of human blood. Manitoba has a single paid-donation centre for rare blood types that predates the Krever Inquiry.

Saskatchewan and New Brunswick have private blood purchasing locations. 

Shepherd said: “This isn’t a partisan issue – our single public voluntary system has served Albertans well for decades, and through this global pandemic.  Allowing private buyers to divert donations away from Canadian Blood Services will cause terrible harm to Canada’s supply. Tany Yao’s bill is a terrible mistake, and I hope members of the UCP caucus will join us in defeating it.”

Peter Martin Jaworski, Ph.D., an Associate Teaching Professor in Strategy, Ethics, Economics and Public Policy at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business has made the case for allowing blood products to be sold.

“In order to meet the demands of patients, every country has come to rely increasingly on plasma from the United States, one of the few countries that permits some form of payment for plasma. The United
States is responsible for 70% of the global supply of plasma. Along with the other countries that permit a form of payment for plasma donations (including Germany, Austria, Hungary, and Czechia), they
together account for nearly 90% of the total supply,” he wrote in a paper called Bloody Well Pay Them.

“This situation is unsustainable, a risk to security, and, most importantly, a threat to the millions of patients who currently depend on plasma therapies, those who will in future, and those who would benefit from them but do not have access.

“In order to ensure a safe, secure, and sufficient supply of plasma therapies, the UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia should withdraw prohibitions on voluntary remunerated plasma collections, and thereby ensure domestic security of supply for our patients, and begin to contribute to the global supply of plasma.”

David Clement, Toronto-based North American Affairs Manager for the Consumer Choice Center (CCC), said “We applaud the Government of Alberta and MLA Tany Yao for putting this forward. A ban on paid blood plasma was ridiculous to begin with, especially considering that 70 per cent of Canada’s blood plasma supply comes from the USA, where they compensate donors.

“Blood plasma is used for a variety of medical treatments, and plays and important role in the fight against Covid-19. Our hope is that by allowing for compensation, more Albertans will donate blood plasma and help the province overcome the persistent shortages that occur. Czechia (previously the Czech Republic) legalized paying for blood plasma, and saw a 7 fold increase in donations. If that were to happen in Alberta it would be cause for celebration, not condemnation.” said Clement.

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard

dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com

Twitter.com/nobby7694

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Canada now $1,200,000,000,000 in debt

The projected debt will be $1.2 trillion by March 2021, up from $765 billion a year earlier.

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Finance Minister Bill Morneau announced Wednesday a deficit of $343 billion this fiscal year – taking Canada’s debt to more than $1.2 trillion.

In a what he called a “fiscal snapshot”, Morneau said spending from the COVID-19 outbreak was to blame for the massive deficit.

The projected debt will be $1.2 trillion by March 2021, up from $765 billion a year earlier.

Before the pandemic hit, the federal deficit was pegged about $34.4 billion.

“Some will criticize us on the cost of action,” Morneau said in the House of Commons. 

“But our government knew that the cost of inaction would’ve been far greater.

“Those who would have us do less ignore that, without government action, millions of jobs would have been lost, putting the burden of debt onto families and jeopardizing Canada’s resilience.”

Much of the higher deficit comes from higher than projected spending under Ottawa’s two key COVID-19 financial aid programs, the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) and the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB)

The snapshot shows that GDP will shrink by projected 6.8% this year — worst since the Great Depression. But the economy is expected to bounce back by 5.5% next year.

One of the reason the deficit is so much higher is the government predicting the amount of money it takes in will drop substantially.

Personal income taxes are projected to dip by 30 per cent and corporate taxes will be 11 per cent lower.

The national unemployment rate hit almost 14 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 but is expected that rate to return to levels closer to the pre-pandemic era — roughly 7 per cent — by the end of 2021.

“The reality is we’ve witnessed an unprecedented shock to our system,” Morneau told reporters.

“With a crisis of this magnitude, someone was going to have to shoulder the costs and the federal government was uniquely placed to take this responsibility on. We took on this role because it was the right thing to do.”

Tory leader Andrew Scheer called Morneau’s fiscal update a “dire picture of Canada’s finances.”

“The prime minister’s track record proves that he cannot be trusted to lead Canada through the recovery,” he said.

Scheer said Canada is the only G7 country that has had its credit rating cut during the pandemic and Canada has the highest unemployment rate among the group of developed nations.

“That should be a real wake-up call for this government.”

Canadian Taxpayers Federation Federal Director Aaron Wudrick said the news should alarm Ottawa.

“Unfortunately, Ottawa doesn’t seem to have a plan to manage this deep dive into debt. For all the specifics he provided today, Finance Minister Bill Morneau may as well have posted a picture on Instagram,” Wudrick said.

“Pandemic-related spending has caused the deficit to balloon by more than one thousand per cent in just four months. Much of this spending was intended to temporarily address the COVID-19 crisis, but these programs are extremely expensive and unsustainable. Minister Morneau needs to lay out a plan to turn off the taps, but he failed to do that.

“In particular, it is clear that the government must either end or significantly reform the Canada Emergency Response Benefit which creates a strong unintended incentive for people to stay out of the workforce. 

Dave Naylor is the News Editor of the Western Standard

dnaylor@westernstandardonline.com

TWITTER: Twitter.com/nobby7694

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